The interest rate on bonds is slightly higher than the KS on average. But the peculiarity of these securities is that their yield is determined in advance. This means that you can win on the difference in KS. Let's consider two situations so that it is clear what can be expected with such investments:
the bond was issued at 8.5%, but by the time the income was received, the KS had grown to 15%. The investor receives significantly less profit than if he had bought the bond later;
the investor bought a bond when the KS was 15%, and the yield on it was 16%. At the exit, he gets his 16%, but the KS has already fallen to 9%. This is much more profitable than with a stable key rate.
Thus, the bond market becomes much more attractive when the Central Bank of the Russian Federation increases the interest rate.
Stock
A stock is not a debt security, and its yield is not guaranteed. This means that the KS does not directly affect the value of shares, but the indirect influence is obvious:
for shares to rise in price, the business must grow;
For a business to grow, it requires high purchasing power and easy access to cheap credit;
To keep loans cheap and demand for goods and services high, the coefficient of correlation must be low.
When the economy is developing steadily, investors qatar mobile database prefer stocks. This is a risky instrument, but it can bring the maximum profit. When the Central Bank increases the CA, the risks become too high, and the potential profitability is low. At such moments, people tend to choose more reliable and proven instruments - this means that the popularity of bank deposits and bonds grows.
Since August 2023, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has been increasing the KA. In October, its value reached 15%. This measure led to a slowdown in inflation and a strengthening of the ruble. But we have already said above that with such high interest rates, the market economy cannot develop normally. After all, expensive loans mean that businesses are forced to cut costs, otherwise they will have large debts.
One of the most important negative consequences of a high KS is stagnation in the housing market. People refuse mortgages at unfavorable interest rates, which is why developers are unable to buy properties in a timely manner and begin building new ones.
All this means that during 2024 we should expect a decrease in the CU - most likely, gradually, but a rather sharp decrease in this parameter is also possible. Everything depends on the specific tasks that the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will set for itself.