The war between Russia and Ukraine and possible reflections for RelGov professionals
Posted: Thu Feb 20, 2025 5:36 am
In International Relations, there is the concept of Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD), coined during the Cold War, which advocates that the use of nuclear weapons on a large scale by two or more belligerent states will guarantee the annihilation of all involved, as was feared at that time. Keeping this concept in mind when observing the developments of the war between Russia and Ukraine is essential to analyzing possible future scenarios, because, although the Cold War is no longer a reality, some of its greatest threats to international peace and security remain.
Ukraine, despite support from the United States and the European Union, is suffering greatly from the conflict: in humanitarian terms, with the forced displacement of part of its population to neighboring countries and uruguay mobile database the deaths of Ukrainian civilians; also in economic terms, as the bombing of its cities has led to the destruction of its infrastructure.
Russia is also suffering. Several economic sanctions have already been imposed on the country, from exclusion from the SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) system – which allows for secure currency exchange between countries – to the proposal to deny it “Most Favored Nation” status in the World Trade Organization (WTO), which could have an impact on Russia’s trade with other countries. In addition, the approval by a large majority of the United Nations General Assembly of a resolution condemning the Russian campaign demonstrates the international community’s disapproval of Moscow’s actions.
Despite all the sanctions already imposed on Russia and all the political, economic and commercial repercussions of the war, both regionally and globally, the MAD concept shows that a purely military solution is unfeasible. Although they can stand up to Russian military power, the United States and the member countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) are unlikely to engage in hostilities, at the risk of triggering a nuclear retaliation of catastrophic proportions. Thus, the tendency is for both sides of the conflict to opt for ceasefire negotiations or, in the worst case scenario, to prolong the conflict until a consensus is reached.
Ukraine, despite support from the United States and the European Union, is suffering greatly from the conflict: in humanitarian terms, with the forced displacement of part of its population to neighboring countries and uruguay mobile database the deaths of Ukrainian civilians; also in economic terms, as the bombing of its cities has led to the destruction of its infrastructure.
Russia is also suffering. Several economic sanctions have already been imposed on the country, from exclusion from the SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) system – which allows for secure currency exchange between countries – to the proposal to deny it “Most Favored Nation” status in the World Trade Organization (WTO), which could have an impact on Russia’s trade with other countries. In addition, the approval by a large majority of the United Nations General Assembly of a resolution condemning the Russian campaign demonstrates the international community’s disapproval of Moscow’s actions.
Despite all the sanctions already imposed on Russia and all the political, economic and commercial repercussions of the war, both regionally and globally, the MAD concept shows that a purely military solution is unfeasible. Although they can stand up to Russian military power, the United States and the member countries of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) are unlikely to engage in hostilities, at the risk of triggering a nuclear retaliation of catastrophic proportions. Thus, the tendency is for both sides of the conflict to opt for ceasefire negotiations or, in the worst case scenario, to prolong the conflict until a consensus is reached.